Lennard Hartjes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lennard Hartjes's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (1565 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €428k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1565 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 5 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1295
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €467k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +14% (IQR -12% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1565 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 21 | 1565 | 51% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1295 | 1183 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1266 | 1142 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1288 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramiro Vaca Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Mathijs Tielemans Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €800k | €350k | fell |
| Mithat Pala Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €1.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Diego Lopes Super League 1 · 2017 | 23 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Zezinho Super League 1 · 2017 | 25 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Marius Elvius Superliga · 2024 | 22 | €750k | €850k | flat |
| Recep Niyaz Super Lig · 2020 | 25 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Frederik Lauenborg Superliga · 2021 | 24 | €500k | €600k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2024 | Feyenoord | Excelsior | €250k | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Excelsior | Feyenoord | Free / loan | €500k |
| 10 Jul 2023 | Feyenoord | Excelsior | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Roda JC | Feyenoord | Free / loan | €300k |
| 15 Aug 2022 | Feyenoord | Roda JC | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Feyenoord U18 | Feyenoord | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Feyenoord U17 | Feyenoord U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Feyenoord Youth | Feyenoord U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sparta Youth | Feyenoord Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Spijkenis Yth. | Sparta Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.