Mithat Pala

26 yrs · Right-back (also CM, LB) · Türkiye
Caykur Rizespor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 172 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€756k – €2.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€372k – €788k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.4M – €3.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.1M – €32k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€756k – €2.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€372k – €788k
Projected value (24 months)€1.4M – €3.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mithat Pala's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 88

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average12th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.0M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationLow-23% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1943 (64% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.09
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.12
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
12 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1229
Opponent strength
1267
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.4M – €3.8M

Trajectory drivers: role change LB -> RB; relative output up 29% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -22% to +2%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Caykur RizesporSuper LigRB30194363%200.090.12126712290.40
2024/25Caykur RizesporSuper LigLB33181756%010.050.10130412280.39
2023/24Caykur RizesporSuper LigCM26161447%020.110.18131312190.45
2020/21Caykur RizesporSuper LigCM5261%000.000.21125511740.37

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Yassine Meriah
Super Lig · 2021
28€2.0M€2.0Mflat
Kye Rowles
Scottish Premiership · 2023
25€1.2M€1.2Mflat
Attila Mocsi
Super Lig · 2024
24€1.8M€2.0Mflat
Tayyip Talha Sanuç
Super Lig · 2022
23€2.8M€3.0Mflat
Jailson
Super Lig · 2020
25€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Chidozie Awaziem
Liga Portugal · 2024
27€3.0M€2.5Mflat
Silvije Begic
Premier Liga · 2022
29€2.0M€1.8Mflat
Robert Bauer
Premier Liga · 2021
26€2.0M€800kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2022AfyonsporC. RizesporFree / loan€225k
2 Aug 2021C. RizesporAfyonsporFree / loan€150k
3 Aug 2020PazarsporC. RizesporFree / loanData unavailable
10 Jan 2020C. RizesporPazarsporFree / loanData unavailable
4 Jan 2020PazarsporC. RizesporUnknownData unavailable
2 Sept 2019Sakarya DemirPazarsporFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.