
Mithat Pala
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mithat Pala's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1943 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1267
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.8M
Trajectory drivers: role change LB -> RB; relative output up 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -22% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | RB | 30 | 1943 | 63% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1267 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | LB | 33 | 1817 | 56% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1304 | 1228 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CM | 26 | 1614 | 47% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 1313 | 1219 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CM | 5 | 26 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1255 | 1174 | 0.37 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yassine Meriah Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Kye Rowles Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Attila Mocsi Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €1.8M | €2.0M | flat |
| Tayyip Talha Sanuç Super Lig · 2022 | 23 | €2.8M | €3.0M | flat |
| Jailson Super Lig · 2020 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Chidozie Awaziem Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Silvije Begic Premier Liga · 2022 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Robert Bauer Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2022 | Afyonspor | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €225k |
| 2 Aug 2021 | C. Rizespor | Afyonspor | Free / loan | €150k |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Pazarspor | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 10 Jan 2020 | C. Rizespor | Pazarspor | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 4 Jan 2020 | Pazarspor | C. Rizespor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Sakarya Demir | Pazarspor | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.