Dani Parejo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dani Parejo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.53x the positional average in the league (1390 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 86.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 37.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €580k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1390 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €490k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; relative output down 52% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -73% (IQR -76% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1390 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CM | 32 | 1390 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 1498 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CM | 36 | 2278 | 67% | 3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 1509 | 1597 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CM | 33 | 2586 | 76% | 3 | 5 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 1490 | 1577 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | DM | 37 | 3289 | 96% | 3 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1509 | 1581 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CM | 33 | 2710 | 79% | 2 | 10 | 0.40 | 0.31 | 1532 | 1661 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CM | 36 | 3120 | 91% | 3 | 5 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 1560 | 1676 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 35 | 3030 | 89% | 8 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 1531 | 1548 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 36 | 3062 | 90% | 9 | 7 | 0.47 | 0.37 | 1548 | 1653 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 34 | 3005 | 88% | 7 | 8 | 0.45 | 0.38 | 1561 | 1607 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 36 | 3195 | 93% | 5 | 10 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 1567 | 1499 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 33 | 2740 | 80% | 8 | 5 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 1571 | 1556 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 34 | 2928 | 86% | 11 | 8 | 0.58 | 0.46 | 1568 | 1701 | 1.18 |
| 2013/14 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 31 | 2407 | 70% | 4 | 5 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 1536 | 1609 | 1.19 |
| 2012/13 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 27 | 1966 | 57% | 1 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 1482 | 1612 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 7 | 205 | 0 | 0 | 1588 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 94 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 137 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 7 | 458 | 1 | 0 | 1537 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 197 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 4 | 159 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Villarreal CF | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 1416 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 12 | 1058 | 1 | 3 | 1739 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 12 | 942 | 0 | 3 | 1611 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 5 | 223 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 8 | 720 | 1 | 3 | 1666 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | Valencia CF | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1749 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 8 | 626 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Valencia CF | 7 | 557 | 1 | 1 | 1597 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1715 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 8 | 614 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 225 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 6 | 517 | 0 | 0 | 1556 |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 6 | 495 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Valencia CF | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1623 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Valencia CF | 3 | 163 | 1 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 167 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | Valencia CF | 11 | 931 | 1 | 2 | 1546 |
| 2013/14 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 340 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 360 | 1 | 3 | — |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 5 | 354 | 0 | 0 | 1645 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Leiva Serie A · 2022 | 35 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Elkin Soto Bundesliga · 2014 | 34 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Óscar Trejo Laliga · 2024 | 36 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Markus Feulner Bundesliga · 2016 | 34 | €750k | €150k | fell |
| Christian Gentner Bundesliga · 2021 | 36 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Fernando Laliga · 2023 | 36 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Steed Malbranque Ligue 1 · 2014 | 34 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Christopher Trimmel Bundesliga · 2024 | 37 | €600k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Villarreal | Without Club | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 12 Aug 2020 | Valencia | Villarreal | €2.3M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Getafe | Valencia | €6.0M | €8.0M |
| 25 Jul 2009 | Real Madrid | Getafe | €3.0M | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2009 | RM Castilla | Real Madrid | Unknown | €500k |
| 31 Dec 2008 | QPR | RM Castilla | Free / loan | €500k |
| 4 Aug 2008 | RM Castilla | QPR | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Real Madrid U17 | Real Madrid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | R.Madrid Yth. | Real Madrid U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.