Roberto Fernández
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Roberto Fernández's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €912k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2435 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1212
- Opponent strength
- 1340
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €664k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -53% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | LB | 29 | 2435 | 90% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 1340 | 1212 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | LB | 19 | 1625 | 60% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 1310 | 1260 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | LM | 29 | 2250 | 83% | 1 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.29 | 1349 | 1187 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Akron Togliatti | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Akron Togliatti | 3 | 118 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 11 | 481 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenn Bijl Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Brecht Capon Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 26 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Alessandro Ciranni Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €1.6M | €650k | fell |
| Stefano Marzo Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Mitch Apau Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 25 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Konstantin Pliev Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Gregor Balazic Premier Liga · 2014 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Mickaël Tirpan Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 25 | €800k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Bolívar | Akron Tolyatti | €500k | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Akron Tolyatti | Bolívar | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Sept 2024 | Bolívar | Akron Tolyatti | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Baltika | Bolívar | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 8 Jul 2023 | Bolívar | Baltika | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | CyD Leonesa | Bolívar | Unknown | €400k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Club Blooming | CyD Leonesa | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Blooming U20 | Club Blooming | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2017 | Quebracho | Club Blooming | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 4 Aug 2017 | Club Blooming | Quebracho | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.