Marius Mouandilmadji
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marius Mouandilmadji's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-8.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-7.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (2050 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.3M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2050 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.61
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.55
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1268
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.3M – €7.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -61% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | ST | 34 | 2050 | 67% | 10 | 4 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 1268 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | ST | 34 | 2507 | 77% | 10 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.48 | 1288 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | ST | 30 | 2093 | 61% | 9 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 1308 | 1217 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | RFC Seraing | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 26 | 1946 | 64% | 11 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.78 | 1332 | 1128 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RFC Seraing | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 31 | 1370 | 45% | 2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.45 | 1352 | 1144 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | Desportivo Aves (- 2020) | Liga Portugal | ST | 12 | 509 | 17% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.56 | 1335 | 1136 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | ST | 1 | 9 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 10.00 | 0.34 | 1350 | 1685 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Samsunspor | 2 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 1397 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Théo Bongonda Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Aleksandar Pesic Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Stefanos Athanasiadis Super League 1 · 2016 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Saba Lobjanidze Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €4.3M | €3.0M | fell |
| Fabien Camus Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ivan Sergeev Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Rey Manaj Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Sergio Araujo Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2023 | RFC Seraing | Samsunspor | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 9 Jul 2021 | Without Club | RFC Seraing | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jan 2021 | FC Porto B | Without Club | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Desportivo Aves | FC Porto B | Free / loan | €350k |
| 9 Jan 2020 | FC Porto B | Desportivo Aves | Free / loan | €400k |
| 17 Jul 2018 | Coton Sport FC | FC Porto B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Gazelle FC | Coton Sport FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Unknown | Gazelle FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.