Ferran Jutglà

27 yrs · Right winger (also ST) · Spain
Celta de Vigo · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 175 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€10.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€5.7M – €12.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€5.8M – €13.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.8M – €11.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€6.8M – €7.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€5.7M – €12.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€5.8M – €13.5M
Projected value (24 months)€3.8M – €11.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€10.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ferran Jutglà's performance-implied value at EUR 5.8M-13.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.7M-12.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-11.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.47x the positional average in the league (1663 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 14

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average72.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €9.4M vs market €10.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-33% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €14.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1663 (49% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.65
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.58
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
73 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1498
Opponent strength
1482
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.8M – €11.2M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+117 Elo); role change ST -> RW; relative output up 67% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -57% to +9%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1663 league minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Celta de VigoLaligaRW30166349%930.650.58148214980.95
2024/25Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueST27110641%820.810.46137915520.63
2023/24Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueST26123046%710.590.46138515410.63
2022/23Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueST31196364%1350.830.46128814910.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueCelta de Vigo12491101512
2025/26Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo212600—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueClub Brugge KV12857221638
2024/25Volkswagen SupercupClub Brugge KV179001589
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueClub Brugge KV8514221649
2022/23Volkswagen SupercupClub Brugge KV166001420

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Robin Hack
Bundesliga · 2024
26€8.0M€7.0Mflat
Riccardo Orsolini
Serie A · 2023
26€12.0M€25.0Mrose
Admir Mehmedi
Bundesliga · 2019
28€10.0M€4.0Mfell
Hugo Almeida
Super Lig · 2013
29€7.0M€2.0Mfell
Serhou Guirassy
Bundesliga · 2023
27€14.0M€45.0Mrose
Cyle Larin
Laliga · 2023
28€8.0M€3.5Mfell
Aiden McGeady
Premier Liga · 2014
28€6.0M€4.5Mfell
Éder
Liga Portugal · 2013
26€8.0M€6.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025Club BruggeCelta de Vigo€5.0M€8.0M
1 Jul 2022Barça AtlèticClub Brugge€5.0M€3.0M
1 Jul 2021RCD Espanyol BBarcelona BFree / loan€150k
30 Jun 2019Sant AndreuRCD Espanyol BFree / loanData unavailable
20 Jul 2018RCD Espanyol BSant AndreuFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Espanyol U19RCD Espanyol BUnknownData unavailable
30 Jun 2018Valencia U19Espanyol U19Free / loanData unavailable
14 Feb 2018Espanyol U19Valencia U19Free / loanData unavailable
31 Jan 2018St. Andreu U19Espanyol U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2017Espanyol U19St. Andreu U19Free / loanData unavailable
30 Jun 2017Bellvitge U19Espanyol U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Espanyol U18Bellvitge U19Free / loanData unavailable
30 Jun 2016Vic RiuprimerEspanyol U18Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Espanyol YouthVic RiuprimerFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Ferran Jutglà · MoneyballAI