Serhou Guirassy
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Serhou Guirassy's performance-implied value at EUR 23.3M-56.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.9M-36.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.3M-18.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.80x the positional average in the league (2351 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €25.8M vs market €32.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -60% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2351 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.73
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1471
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.3M – €18.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -72% (IQR -75% to -71%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 33 | 2351 | 77% | 17 | 2 | 0.73 | 0.41 | 1471 | 1656 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 30 | 2602 | 85% | 21 | 4 | 0.86 | 0.47 | 1486 | 1680 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | ST | 28 | 2214 | 72% | 28 | 2 | 1.22 | 0.89 | 1522 | 1637 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | ST | 22 | 1653 | 54% | 11 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 1527 | 1429 | 1.04 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 1 | 22 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1335 | 1562 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 37 | 998 | 29% | 9 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.54 | 1390 | 1581 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 27 | 1766 | 52% | 10 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 1442 | 1445 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Amiens SC | Ligue 1 | ST | 23 | 1928 | 77% | 9 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 1446 | 1314 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Amiens SC | Ligue 1 | ST | 13 | 1116 | 33% | 3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.48 | 1411 | 1348 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | ST | 15 | 846 | 28% | 4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.54 | 1498 | 1387 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | ST | 6 | 79 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 1490 | 1522 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | ST | 8 | 299 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1434 | 1503 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 10 | 711 | 4 | 4 | 1610 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 156 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 14 | 1084 | 13 | 5 | 1652 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 166 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 234 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Stade Rennais FC | 2 | 97 | 1 | 1 | 1509 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Rennais FC | 4 | 342 | 2 | 0 | 1635 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | 1.FC Köln | 5 | 323 | 2 | 0 | 1515 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 124 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yannick Carrasco Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €25.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Gonzalo Higuaín Serie A · 2019 | 32 | €35.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Fernando Torres Premier League · 2013 | 29 | €28.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Wayne Rooney Premier League · 2016 | 31 | €35.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Niclas Füllkrug Bundesliga · 2024 | 31 | €15.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Dries Mertens Serie A · 2018 | 31 | €30.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Antoine Griezmann Laliga · 2024 | 33 | €25.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| José Callejón Serie A · 2019 | 32 | €20.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2024 | Stuttgart | Dortmund | €18.0M | €40.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Stade Rennais | Stuttgart | €9.0M | €14.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Stuttgart | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Stade Rennais | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 27 Aug 2020 | Amiens SC | Stade Rennais | €15.0M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | 1.FC Köln | Amiens SC | €6.0M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Amiens SC | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 31 Jan 2019 | 1.FC Köln | Amiens SC | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 20 Jul 2016 | Lille | 1.FC Köln | €3.8M | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | AJ Auxerre | Lille | Free / loan | €800k |
| 20 Jan 2016 | Lille | AJ Auxerre | Free / loan | €500k |
| 2 Jul 2015 | Stade Lavallois | Lille | €500k | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Stade Laval B | Stade Lavallois | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Stade Laval U19 | Stade Laval B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Stade Laval U17 | Stade Laval U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | J3 Amilly Jgd. | Stade Laval U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Montargis Jgd. | J3 Amilly Jgd. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | J3 Amilly Jgd. | Montargis Jgd. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.