Vyacheslav Litvinov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vyacheslav Litvinov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 16.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €491k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1298 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1197
- Opponent strength
- 1381
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €405k – €1.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -45% to +77%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1298 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | CB | 15 | 1298 | 48% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1381 | 1197 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | CB | 21 | 1207 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1337 | 1222 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | CB | 18 | 1173 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1308 | 1405 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | CB | 7 | 388 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1367 | 1371 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | CB | 2 | 159 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1344 | 1357 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 6 | 346 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 8 | 720 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Formiga Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €400k | €2.0M | rose |
| Dmytro Nemchaninov Premier Liga · 2014 | 24 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Luís Rocha Super League 1 · 2018 | 25 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Orest Lebedenko Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Pierre-Yves Ngawa Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 23 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Gijs Smal Eredivisie · 2021 | 24 | €600k | €6.0M | rose |
| Matej Rodin Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 27 | €850k | €400k | fell |
| Oleg Kozhemyakin Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €700k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Krasnodar | FK Sochi | €1.0M | €1.2M |
| 1 Mar 2022 | Krasnodar 2 | Krasnodar | Unknown | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Krasnodar II | Krasnodar 2 | Unknown | €200k |
| 26 Jul 2018 | Krasnodar U17 | Krasnodar II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.