Arsentiy Doroshenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arsentiy Doroshenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.39x the positional average in the league (1589 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract ends within 6 months: can sign a pre-contract; small or no fee.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 3.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €18k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1589 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 3 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 909
- Opponent strength
- 1191
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €222k – €299k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -4% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1589 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 6 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Poltava | Premier Liga | CM | 22 | 1589 | 59% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.30 | 1191 | 909 | 0.25 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Hammond Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Georgios Nikas Super League 1 · 2023 | 24 | €450k | €500k | flat |
| James Penrice Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €600k | €2.5M | rose |
| Yegor Demchenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Cristopher Núñez Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €450k | €500k | flat |
| Danny Bejarano Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Stephen Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €550k | €550k | flat |
| Vykintas Slivka Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €400k | €500k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2025 | Without Club | SC Poltava | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2025 | FC Minaj | Without Club | Unknown | €100k |
| 25 Mar 2025 | Without Club | FC Minaj | Unknown | €100k |
| 7 Mar 2025 | Nyva Ternopil | Without Club | Unknown | €100k |
| 12 Aug 2022 | Kolos Kovalivka | Nyva Ternopil | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Kramatorsk | Kolos Kovalivka | Free / loan | €75k |
| 2 Sept 2020 | Kolos Kovalivka | Avangard K. | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Podillya | Kolos Kovalivka | Free / loan | €50k |
| 26 Aug 2019 | Kolos Kovalivka | Podillya | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Dnipro | Kolos Kovalivka | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Dnipro U17 | Dnipro | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Apr 2017 | Inter Dnipro | Dnipro U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.