Louis Oppie
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Louis Oppie's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-2.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-5.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-4.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (1616 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.5M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1616 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1283
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €4.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -53% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1616 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | LM | 23 | 1616 | 53% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 1472 | 1283 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 4 | 375 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Badu Serie A · 2015 | 25 | €4.7M | €5.0M | flat |
| Nikolas Spalek Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
| Gerónimo Poblete Ligue 1 · 2018 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Valerio Verre Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €3.8M | €3.5M | flat |
| Enzo Loiodice Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Martin Hongla Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Ádám Nagy Serie A · 2017 | 22 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Sadio Diallo Ligue 1 · 2013 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2025 | Arm. Bielefeld | St. Pauli | €2.0M | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Hannover 96 II | Arm. Bielefeld | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Hannover 96 U19 | Hannover 96 II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Hannover 96 U17 | Hannover 96 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Zehlendorf U17 | Hannover 96 U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Hertha BSC Yth. | Zehlendorf U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Tasmania Yth. | Hertha BSC Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.