Martin Hongla
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Martin Hongla's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.67x the positional average in the league (632 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 11.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €644k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 632 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1255
- Opponent strength
- 1235
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €408k – €1.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -39% to -14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 632 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | DM | 8 | 632 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1235 | 1255 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | DM | 15 | 1085 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1500 | 1381 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | Granada CF | Laliga | DM | 13 | 559 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1489 | 1315 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | DM | 16 | 1312 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1501 | 1372 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | DM | 9 | 523 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1504 | 1357 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | DM | 18 | 649 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1460 | 1441 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 28 | 2265 | 74% | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 1365 | 1436 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 9 | 382 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1369 | 1437 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | Premier Liga | DM | 3 | 255 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1401 | 1262 | 0.57 |
| 2016/17 | Granada CF | Laliga | CB | 10 | 794 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1574 | 1324 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 2 | 162 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 2 | 112 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Royal Antwerp FC | 8 | 638 | 2 | 0 | 1608 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Royal Antwerp FC | 2 | 139 | 0 | 1 | 1489 |
| 2018/19 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azizbek Turgunboev Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Erdal Rakip Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €850k | €700k | flat |
| Cameron McGeehan Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €650k | €500k | fell |
| Lee Croft Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 29 | €650k | €400k | fell |
| Caleb Stanko Super League 1 · 2022 | 29 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Dorukhan Toköz Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €2.1M | €700k | fell |
| Konstantin Kuchaev Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Oleg Dmitriev Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €550k | €550k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Granada CF | Aris Saloniki | €1.3M | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Aris Saloniki | Granada CF | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Granada CF | Aris Saloniki | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 12 Jan 2024 | Hellas Verona | Granada CF | €2.8M | €2.8M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Real Valladolid | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Hellas Verona | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Royal Antwerp | Hellas Verona | €3.7M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Hellas Verona | Royal Antwerp | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 9 Jul 2021 | Royal Antwerp | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 3 Jul 2019 | Recre Granada | Royal Antwerp | €1.6M | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Karpaty Lviv | Recre Granada | Free / loan | €600k |
| 28 Jan 2019 | Recre Granada | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Granada CF | Recre Granada | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Barcelona B | Granada CF | Free / loan | €300k |
| 16 Jan 2018 | Granada CF | Barcelona B | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Granada B | Granada CF | Unknown | €300k |
| 11 Jul 2016 | Nkufo Academy | Granada B | €375k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.