Nikolay Titkov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikolay Titkov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (1825 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €866k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1825 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1326
- Opponent strength
- 1352
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €639k – €2.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -46% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | AM | 28 | 1825 | 68% | 2 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 1352 | 1326 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | CM | 1 | 30 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1281 | 1272 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | CM | 16 | 335 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1258 | 1332 | 0.53 |
| 2020/21 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | CM | 4 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1327 | 1457 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 2 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 7 | 479 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 3 | 166 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halil Akbunar Super Lig · 2019 | 26 | €1.6M | €4.8M | rose |
| Ahmed El Messaoudi Eredivisie · 2021 | 26 | €1.3M | €600k | fell |
| Evgeniy Kharin Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Christian Brüls Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 25 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Lucas Villafañez Super Lig · 2019 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Navarone Foor Eredivisie · 2018 | 26 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Omar Govea Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
| Elohim Rolland Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 27 | €750k | €900k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2025 | Loko Moscow | Baltika | €80k | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Baltika | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Loko Moscow | Baltika | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Orenburg | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Loko Moscow | Orenburg | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Loko-Kazanka M. | Loko Moscow | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Loko Moscow II | Loko-Kazanka M. | Unknown | €175k |
| 9 Aug 2018 | UOR-5 | Loko Moscow II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.