
Andriy Ponedelnik
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andriy Ponedelnik's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €239k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2496 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1200
- Opponent strength
- 1155
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €300k – €698k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; changed club; relative output down 46% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -64% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | RB | 30 | 2496 | 92% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1155 | 1200 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | RB | 26 | 1768 | 65% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1202 | 1237 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | RB | 30 | 2179 | 81% | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 1267 | 1294 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | RB | 22 | 1321 | 49% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1280 | 1236 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 2 | 174 | 0 | 0 | 1586 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Obita Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Vasyl Kurko Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Liam Gordon Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 28 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Marcus Fraser Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 30 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Georgios Mygas Super League 1 · 2022 | 28 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Pablo Santos Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €2.5M | €650k | fell |
| Issam Chebake Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Semih Güler Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2025 | Kryvbas | Kolos Kovalivka | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Girnyk-Sport | Kryvbas | Free / loan | €125k |
| 5 Jul 2021 | Polissya | Girnyk-Sport | Free / loan | €75k |
| 18 Aug 2020 | FC Kalush | Polissya | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 26 Feb 2020 | Bukovyna | FC Kalush | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 Jul 2018 | Krystal | Bukovyna | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 13 Apr 2018 | Nyva Ternopil | Krystal | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Unknown | Nyva Ternopil | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.