Andriy Ponedelnik

29 yrs · Right-back · Ukraine
Kolos Kovalivka · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 180 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€800k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€180k – €571k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€346k – €1.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€300k – €698k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€225k – €850k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€180k – €571k
Model value (performance-implied)€346k – €1.0M
Projected value (24 months)€300k – €698k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Andriy Ponedelnik's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 87

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average29.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €239k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationLow-24% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2496 (92% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
30 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1200
Opponent strength
1155
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€300k – €698k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; changed club; relative output down 46% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -64% to -24%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Kolos KovalivkaPremier LigaRB30249692%010.040.06115512000.25
2024/25Kryvbas Kryvyi RigPremier LigaRB26176865%110.100.11120212370.28
2023/24Kryvbas Kryvyi RigPremier LigaRB30217981%320.210.18126712940.34
2022/23Kryvbas Kryvyi RigPremier LigaRB22132149%100.070.11128012360.38

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupKolos Kovalivka12600—
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingKryvbas Kryvyi Rig2174001586
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingKryvbas Kryvyi Rig145001534
2023/24Ukrainian CupKryvbas Kryvyi Rig19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jordan Obita
Scottish Premiership · 2024
31€400k€150kfell
Vasyl Kurko
Premier Liga · 2024
29€400k€400kflat
Liam Gordon
Scottish Premiership · 2024
28€500k€250kfell
Marcus Fraser
Scottish Premiership · 2024
30€500k€250kfell
Georgios Mygas
Super League 1 · 2022
28€400k€300kfell
Pablo Santos
Super Lig · 2021
29€2.5M€650kfell
Issam Chebake
Super Lig · 2021
32€800k€250kfell
Semih Güler
Super Lig · 2024
30€1.0M€800kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
4 Jul 2025KryvbasKolos KovalivkaFree / loan€800k
1 Jul 2022Girnyk-SportKryvbasFree / loan€125k
5 Jul 2021PolissyaGirnyk-SportFree / loan€75k
18 Aug 2020FC KalushPolissyaFree / loanData unavailable
26 Feb 2020BukovynaFC KalushFree / loanData unavailable
12 Jul 2018KrystalBukovynaFree / loanData unavailable
13 Apr 2018Nyva TernopilKrystalFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2016UnknownNyva TernopilFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.