Kirill Kravtsov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kirill Kravtsov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.87x the positional average in the league (1088 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €723k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1088 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1197
- Opponent strength
- 1363
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €585k – €2.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -26% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1088 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | DM | 17 | 1088 | 40% | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 1363 | 1197 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | DM | 26 | 2150 | 80% | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1324 | 1222 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | DM | 24 | 1083 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1308 | 1310 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | DM | 11 | 990 | 37% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 1361 | 1260 | 0.52 |
| 2021/22 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | DM | 9 | 140 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1322 | 1530 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CM | 4 | 79 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1183 | 1544 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 3 | 33 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 3 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 5 | 421 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1682 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaplenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €1.2M | €350k | fell |
| Mateusz Klich Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €750k | €800k | flat |
| Gudmundur Thórarinsson Superliga · 2016 | 24 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Wilson Kamavuaka Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €700k | €750k | flat |
| Alasana Manneh Superliga · 2023 | 25 | €500k | €650k | rose |
| Abdoulaye Sissako Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €850k | €700k | flat |
| Zinédine Machach Eredivisie · 2021 | 25 | €550k | €300k | fell |
| Richard Neudecker Eredivisie · 2020 | 24 | €475k | €400k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2022 | Zenit S-Pb | FK Sochi | €835k | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Nizhny Novgorod | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €800k |
| 10 Feb 2022 | Zenit S-Pb | Nizhny Novgorod | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Zenit S-Pb | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Zenit II | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Zenit U17 | Zenit II | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.