Christian Gammelgaard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Christian Gammelgaard's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.55x the positional average in the league (1632 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €789k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1632 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.55
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.61
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1098
- Opponent strength
- 1280
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €608k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; league level up (+45 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -8% (IQR -30% to +13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1632 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | RW | 22 | 1632 | 82% | 6 | 4 | 0.55 | 0.61 | 1280 | 1098 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | RW | 21 | 940 | 47% | 0 | 5 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 1311 | 1083 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | RW | 5 | 31 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1220 | 1174 | 0.48 |
| 2021/22 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | RW | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1276 | 1145 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 4 | 257 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Fredericia | 2 | 142 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 1 | 104 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toni Silva Super League 1 · 2017 | 24 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Allan Sousa Superliga · 2021 | 24 | €1.5M | €1.8M | rose |
| Apostolos Vellios Super League 1 · 2016 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Lisandro Semedo Super League 1 · 2020 | 24 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Konan N’Dri Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 23 | €2.0M | €1.4M | fell |
| Marius Mouandilmadji Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €1.2M | €3.5M | rose |
| Jhon Murillo Liga Portugal · 2017 | 22 | €900k | €1.0M | flat |
| Kosmas Tsilianidis Super League 1 · 2020 | 26 | €475k | €400k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Fredericia | Vejle BK | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Vejle BK | FC Fredericia | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Vejle BK U19 | Vejle BK | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Vejle BK Youth | Vejle BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.