Julián Bartolo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Julián Bartolo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.39x the positional average in the league (1660 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €251k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1660 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.56
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1138
- Opponent strength
- 1235
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €333k – €650k
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -41% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1660 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | AM | 24 | 1660 | 71% | 8 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 1235 | 1138 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | AM | 22 | 1703 | 73% | 3 | 7 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 1272 | 1185 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | AM | 20 | 1166 | 50% | 3 | 4 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 1235 | 1212 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | LW | 16 | 758 | 32% | 1 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 1254 | 1198 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | LW | 25 | 1763 | 75% | 3 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.52 | 1262 | 1195 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | LW | 24 | 1569 | 67% | 2 | 6 | 0.46 | 0.57 | 1300 | 1194 | 0.39 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 4 | 138 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 369 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 55 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 3 | 222 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 4 | 295 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sotiris Tsiloulis Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €450k | €300k | fell |
| Gennadiy Pasich Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Mitchell Donald Super Lig · 2020 | 32 | €950k | €300k | fell |
| Gökcan Kaya Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Flavien Le Postollec Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 30 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Rachid Bourabia Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 30 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Aziz Behich Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 33 | €550k | €300k | fell |
| Mads Albaek Superliga · 2020 | 30 | €325k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Volos NFC | Asteras Tripoli | Free / loan | €600k |
| 7 Aug 2020 | Acassuso | Volos NFC | Free / loan | €100k |
| 4 Jul 2019 | Guillermo Brown | Acassuso | Free / loan | €200k |
| 14 Jul 2018 | San Miguel | Guillermo Brown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | San Miguel II | San Miguel | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.