
Yuri Berchiche
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yuri Berchiche's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 83.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €369k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2709 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1451
- Opponent strength
- 1459
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €381k – €1.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; team strength down (-128 Elo); relative output up 94% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -57% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | LB | 32 | 2709 | 79% | 0 | 7 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 1459 | 1451 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | LB | 30 | 2041 | 60% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1500 | 1578 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | LB | 27 | 1931 | 56% | 3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 1465 | 1583 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | LB | 29 | 2406 | 70% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1520 | 1487 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | LB | 14 | 1016 | 30% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 1512 | 1551 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | LB | 23 | 1685 | 49% | 1 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 1565 | 1541 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | LB | 33 | 2853 | 83% | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1541 | 1543 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | LB | 35 | 3121 | 91% | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1559 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | LB | 22 | 1713 | 50% | 2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 1423 | 1774 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LB | 35 | 3090 | 90% | 3 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 1554 | 1562 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LB | 21 | 1851 | 54% | 0 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 1595 | 1543 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LB | 21 | 1470 | 43% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1554 | 1552 | 1.18 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 292 | 0 | 0 | 1677 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 182 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 990 | 1 | 1 | 1559 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1750 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 516 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 647 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1789 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 614 | 4 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1889 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 6 | 540 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Cannavaro Serie A · 2016 | 35 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Óscar de Marcos Laliga · 2023 | 34 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Damián Suárez Laliga · 2022 | 34 | €1.5M | €650k | fell |
| Martín Cáceres Serie A · 2021 | 34 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Sébastien Squillaci Ligue 1 · 2016 | 36 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Paul Verhaegh Bundesliga · 2017 | 34 | €1.0M | €750k | fell |
| Vangelis Moras Serie A · 2015 | 34 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Lars Jacobsen Ligue 1 · 2016 | 37 | €500k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2018 | PSG | Athletic Club | €24.8M | €17.0M |
| 7 Jul 2017 | Real Sociedad | PSG | €16.0M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | SD Eibar | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €600k |
| 2 Jul 2012 | Real Sociedad | SD Eibar | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Real Unión | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2010 | Tottenham Res. | Real Unión | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2010 | R. Valladolid B | Tottenham Res. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Tottenham Res. | R. Valladolid B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2009 | Cheltenham | Tottenham Res. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 26 Mar 2009 | Tottenham Res. | Cheltenham | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Spurs U18 | Tottenham Res. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Bilbao U18 | Spurs U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Bilbao Youth | Bilbao U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Real Sociedad Y | Bilbao Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | Antiguoko Yth | Real Sociedad Y | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.