Yuri Berchiche

36 yrs · Left-back · Spain
Athletic Bilbao · Laliga · Foot: left · Height: 181 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€276k – €858k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€614k – €2.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€381k – €1.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€243k – €2.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€276k – €858k
Model value (performance-implied)€614k – €2.5M
Projected value (24 months)€381k – €1.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Yuri Berchiche's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh83.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable36.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €369k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral+2% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €20.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2709 (79% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.23
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.20
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
83 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1451
Opponent strength
1459
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€381k – €1.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; team strength down (-128 Elo); relative output up 94% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -57% to -23%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Athletic BilbaoLaligaLB32270979%070.230.20145914510.95
2024/25Athletic BilbaoLaligaLB30204160%020.090.10150015780.95
2023/24Athletic BilbaoLaligaLB27193156%320.230.17146515831.00
2022/23Athletic BilbaoLaligaLB29240670%120.110.12152014870.98
2021/22Athletic BilbaoLaligaLB14101630%120.270.18151215511.05
2020/21Athletic BilbaoLaligaLB23168549%140.270.25156515411.10
2019/20Athletic BilbaoLaligaLB33285383%220.130.13154115431.16
2018/19Athletic BilbaoLaligaLB35312191%220.120.13155915401.14
2017/18Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1LB22171350%220.210.10142317740.85
2016/17Real SociedadLaligaLB35309090%340.200.17155415621.11
2015/16Real SociedadLaligaLB21185154%040.190.22159515431.17
2014/15Real SociedadLaligaLB21147043%010.060.08155415521.18

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueAthletic Bilbao4292001677
2025/26Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao318200—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueAthletic Bilbao11990111559
2024/25Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao212000—
2024/25SupercopaAthletic Bilbao190001750
2023/24Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao651600—
2022/23Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao764700—
2021/22Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao436000—
2021/22SupercopaAthletic Bilbao247001789
2020/21Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao645000—
2019/20Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao761441—
2018/19Copa Del ReyAthletic Bilbao218000—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain2180001889
2016/17Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad654002—
2015/16Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad19000—
2014/15Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad436000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Paolo Cannavaro
Serie A · 2016
35€600k€200kfell
Óscar de Marcos
Laliga · 2023
34€1.8M€1.5Mflat
Damián Suárez
Laliga · 2022
34€1.5M€650kfell
Martín Cáceres
Serie A · 2021
34€1.0M€500kfell
Sébastien Squillaci
Ligue 1 · 2016
36€500k€250kfell
Paul Verhaegh
Bundesliga · 2017
34€1.0M€750kfell
Vangelis Moras
Serie A · 2015
34€600k€250kfell
Lars Jacobsen
Ligue 1 · 2016
37€500k€500kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Jul 2018PSGAthletic Club€24.8M€17.0M
7 Jul 2017Real SociedadPSG€16.0M€10.0M
30 Jun 2014SD EibarReal SociedadFree / loan€600k
2 Jul 2012Real SociedadSD EibarFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Real UniónReal SociedadFree / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2010Tottenham Res.Real UniónUnknownData unavailable
30 Jun 2010R. Valladolid BTottenham Res.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Tottenham Res.R. Valladolid BFree / loanData unavailable
1 May 2009CheltenhamTottenham Res.Free / loanData unavailable
26 Mar 2009Tottenham Res.CheltenhamFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Spurs U18Tottenham Res.UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Bilbao U18Spurs U18Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2006Bilbao YouthBilbao U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2005Real Sociedad YBilbao YouthUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2004Antiguoko YthReal Sociedad YUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.