Metehan Altunbaş
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Metehan Altunbaş's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-4.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.78x the positional average in the league (1006 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.0M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1006 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.72
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.73
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1204
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €4.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -33% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1006 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | LW | 18 | 1006 | 33% | 7 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.73 | 1271 | 1204 | 0.40 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musa Juwara Superliga · 2024 | 23 | €850k | €500k | fell |
| Saúl Guarirapa Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.2M | €900k | fell |
| Yassine El Ghanassy Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Tony Watt Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 21 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Vitaliy Lisakovich Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Farley Rosa Super League 1 · 2017 | 23 | €600k | €700k | flat |
| Deian Sorescu Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Mbaye Diagne Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 23 | €800k | €950k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2025 | Adanaspor | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €275k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Ankara Demir | Adanaspor | Free / loan | €200k |
| 18 Feb 2023 | Adanaspor | Ankara Demir | Free / loan | €200k |
| 4 Aug 2022 | Amateure OÖ | Adanaspor | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | LASK | Amateure OÖ | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Juniors OÖ | LASK | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | LASK | Juniors OÖ | Free / loan | €400k |
| 12 Jan 2021 | Eskisehirspor | LASK | €500k | €75k |
| 21 Oct 2019 | Eskisehir Yth. | Eskisehirspor | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Feb 2019 | Eskisehirspor | Eskisehir Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 25 Sept 2018 | Eskisehir Yth. | Eskisehirspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.