Olivier Deman

26 yrs · Left-back (also LM, LW, RW, ST) · Belgium
SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga · Foot: left · Height: 181 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
64/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€3.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.6M – €4.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.2M – €6.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.6M – €3.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.8M – €4.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.6M – €4.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.2M – €6.1M
Projected value (24 months)€1.6M – €3.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Olivier Deman's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-6.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-3.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 64

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage53.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.5M vs market €3.5M
Expected appreciationLow-20% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1255 (41% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.29
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.21
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
54 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1378
Opponent strength
1471
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.6M – €3.9M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-66 Elo); league level up (+103 Elo); relative output up 238% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -25% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1255 league minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SV Werder BremenBundesligaLB16125541%130.290.21147113780.94
2024/25Royal Antwerp FCJupiler Pro LeagueLB1089233%000.000.05134814420.63
2024/25SV Werder BremenBundesligaLM9592%000.000.20147814830.94
2023/24SV Werder BremenBundesligaLM29136044%210.200.17148914591.01
2023/24Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro LeagueLM538114%000.000.15139113940.63
2022/23Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro LeagueLW30244780%150.220.26130713730.58
2021/22Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro LeagueRW32189062%220.190.27134613050.49
2020/21Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro LeagueST958319%000.000.39134112280.55
2019/20Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro LeagueLM3532%000.000.41142012020.63
2018/19Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro LeagueLM120%000.000.39145012010.65

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Dfb PokalSV Werder Bremen11100—
2024/25Dfb PokalSV Werder Bremen22000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Giangiacomo Magnani
Serie A · 2023
28€3.0M€3.0Mflat
Fernando Calero
Laliga · 2023
28€2.0M€1.5Mfell
Paweł Dawidowicz
Serie A · 2023
28€3.0M€2.5Mflat
Abdul Mumin
Laliga · 2024
26€2.5M€3.0Mrose
Cléber Reis
Bundesliga · 2015
25€2.5M€2.5Mflat
Ezequiel Muñoz
Serie A · 2015
25€4.0M€3.0Mfell
Bruno Méndez
Laliga · 2024
25€5.0M€4.5Mflat
Kasim Adams
Bundesliga · 2020
25€3.2M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2025Royal AntwerpWerder BremenFree / loan€3.0M
7 Jan 2025Werder BremenRoyal AntwerpFree / loan€3.0M
31 Aug 2023Cercle BruggeWerder Bremen€4.0M€3.0M
1 Jul 2019Cercle U21Cercle BruggeUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Cercle U19Cercle U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2017Cercle U17Cercle U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Cercle YouthCercle U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Club Brugge YthCercle YouthFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Cercle YouthClub Brugge YthFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2007FC Knokke Yth.Cercle YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.