Fernando Calero
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fernando Calero's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-3.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2150 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1399
- Opponent strength
- 1510
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €599k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; relative output down 74% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -47% to +8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 28 | 2150 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1510 | 1399 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 21 | 702 | 21% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1497 | 1411 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 27 | 1617 | 47% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1529 | 1382 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 16 | 1090 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1513 | 1416 | 1.05 |
| 2019/20 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CB | 15 | 1043 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1520 | 1432 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | CB | 36 | 3130 | 92% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1554 | 1407 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 2 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 2 | 174 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1445 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helibelton Palacios Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Adrian Mariappa Premier League · 2018 | 32 | €1.5M | €1.6M | flat |
| Lillo Castellano Laliga · 2017 | 28 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
| Carlos Akapo Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Dennis Appiah Ligue 1 · 2020 | 28 | €1.4M | €2.0M | rose |
| Aleandro Rosi Serie A · 2016 | 29 | €800k | €900k | flat |
| Ivan Radovanovic Serie A · 2021 | 33 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Aly Cissokho Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Espanyol | Without Club | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 9 Aug 2019 | Real Valladolid | Espanyol | €8.0M | €10.0M |
| 8 Aug 2017 | R. Valladolid B | Real Valladolid | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Atl. Malagueño | R. Valladolid B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Málaga U19 | Atl. Malagueño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.