Denys Ustymenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Denys Ustymenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (1471 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 3.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €168k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1471 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.50
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1070
- Opponent strength
- 1151
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €169k – €526k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -47% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1471 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Obolon Kyiv | Premier Liga | ST | 23 | 1471 | 54% | 6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.50 | 1151 | 1070 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Obolon Kyiv | Premier Liga | ST | 13 | 762 | 28% | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.64 | 1218 | 1098 | 0.28 |
| 2024/25 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | ST | 12 | 254 | 9% | 1 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.87 | 1249 | 1185 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | FC Minaj | Premier Liga | ST | 15 | 1189 | 44% | 5 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.74 | 1246 | 1128 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | ST | 5 | 66 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1176 | 1294 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | ST | 19 | 779 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.43 | 1303 | 1236 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | ST | 14 | 554 | 34% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.39 | 1303 | 1297 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | ST | 20 | 619 | 26% | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 1264 | 1285 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | ST | 1 | 12 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1227 | 1356 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Obolon Kyiv | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 2 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Oleksandriya | 1 | 45 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Oleksandriya | 3 | 80 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Oleksandriya | 1 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rostyslav Taranukha Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Bruce Anderson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €550k | €300k | fell |
| Bachana Arabuli Super League 1 · 2022 | 28 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Bogdan Boychuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Dorin Rotariu Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Sotiris Tsiloulis Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Milos Deletic Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €400k | €700k | rose |
| Muris Mesanovic Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €700k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2025 | Kryvbas | Obolon | Free / loan | €350k |
| 31 Dec 2024 | Karpaty Lviv | Kryvbas | Free / loan | €350k |
| 9 Aug 2024 | Kryvbas | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Minaj | Kryvbas | Free / loan | €350k |
| 22 Jan 2024 | Kryvbas | FC Minaj | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Oleksandriya | Kryvbas | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Oleksandriya II | FC Oleksandriya | Unknown | €100k |
| 18 Jul 2018 | PFC Stal II | Oleksandriya II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | PFC Stal U19 | PFC Stal II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Metalurg U19 | PFC Stal U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Metalurg D. U17 | Metalurg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.