Sergey Babkin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sergey Babkin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1894 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1894 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1262
- Opponent strength
- 1327
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €973k – €3.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 90% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -54% to +26%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CM | 23 | 1894 | 70% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 1327 | 1262 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CM | 29 | 2085 | 77% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 1301 | 1257 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CM | 19 | 1120 | 41% | 2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 1324 | 1257 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CM | 16 | 593 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 1356 | 1270 | 0.53 |
| 2022/23 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | CM | 1 | 13 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1363 | 1399 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | CM | 15 | 651 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1322 | 1344 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 6 | 423 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 6 | 249 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 3 | 131 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 6 | 456 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1473 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Super Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mees de Wit Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Julian Michel Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 24 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Lukas Marecek Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €1.3M | €900k | fell |
| Rodney Kongolo Eredivisie · 2021 | 23 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Mirko Topić Liga Portugal · 2024 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| José Rodríguez Eredivisie · 2019 | 25 | €1.3M | €800k | fell |
| Abdul Khalili Super Lig · 2016 | 24 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
| Brecht Dejaegere Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 22 | €1.2M | €3.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sept 2023 | Loko Moscow | KS Samara | €300k | €1.0M |
| 11 Sept 2023 | KS Samara | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 7 Sept 2022 | Loko Moscow | KS Samara | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Sept 2021 | Loko-Kazanka M. | Loko Moscow | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Apr 2021 | Loko Moscow II | Loko-Kazanka M. | Unknown | €100k |
| 12 Jul 2019 | Anzhi II | Loko Moscow II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Anzhi U19 | Anzhi II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 15 Feb 2017 | Unknown | Anzhi U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.