
Mees de Wit
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mees de Wit's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-6.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-6.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 44.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.0M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2487 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1311
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €6.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 66 pts; team strength down (-73 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -50% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 31 | 2487 | 81% | 3 | 6 | 0.33 | 0.17 | 1311 | 1393 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 14 | 464 | 15% | 1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.14 | 1252 | 1466 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 10 | 410 | 13% | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 1361 | 1441 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LB | 22 | 516 | 17% | 2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.20 | 1392 | 1530 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | LM | 28 | 2324 | 76% | 4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 1368 | 1226 | 0.60 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 447 | 1 | 4 | 1367 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 447 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1546 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1344 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 79 | 1 | 0 | 1339 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 3 | 167 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Rasmussen Superliga · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Kévin Rodrigues Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €2.3M | €1.3M | fell |
| Arthur Masuaku Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Cristian Ramírez Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Valentin Rosier Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €7.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Jorge Fernandes Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Mikael Lustig Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 30 | €3.5M | €3.3M | flat |
| Diogo Figueiras Super League 1 · 2017 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | PEC Zwolle | AZ Alkmaar | €2.3M | €1.5M |
| 6 Jul 2021 | Sporting B | PEC Zwolle | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Orihuela CF | Sporting B | Free / loan | €50k |
| 20 Jan 2020 | Sporting CP U23 | Orihuela CF | Free / loan | €75k |
| 19 Jul 2018 | Ajax U21 | Sporting CP U23 | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Ajax U18 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.