Mees de Wit

28 yrs · Left-back (also LM) · Netherlands
AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 181 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€6.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.3M – €6.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€773k – €2.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.8M – €6.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.9M – -€261k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.3M – €6.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€773k – €2.1M
Projected value (24 months)€2.8M – €6.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mees de Wit's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-6.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-6.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 56

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage44.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €4.0M vs market €6.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-30% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2487 (81% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.33
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.17
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
45 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1393
Opponent strength
1311
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.8M – €6.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 66 pts; team strength down (-73 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -50% to -36%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26AZ AlkmaarEredivisieLB31248781%360.330.17131113930.43
2024/25AZ AlkmaarEredivisieLB1446415%110.390.14125214660.50
2023/24AZ AlkmaarEredivisieLB1041013%100.220.12136114410.48
2022/23AZ AlkmaarEredivisieLB2251617%210.520.20139215300.58
2021/22PEC ZwolleEredivisieLM28232476%400.150.23136812260.60

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar5447141367
2025/26Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar544712—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueAZ Alkmaar4210001546
2024/25Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar27600—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar149001344
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar479101339
2022/23Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar22400—
2021/22Knvb BekerPEC Zwolle316700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jacob Rasmussen
Superliga · 2024
27€3.0M€1.8Mfell
Kévin Rodrigues
Super Lig · 2023
29€2.3M€1.3Mfell
Arthur Masuaku
Super Lig · 2023
30€6.0M€3.0Mfell
Cristian Ramírez
Premier Liga · 2023
29€5.0M€2.5Mfell
Valentin Rosier
Super Lig · 2021
25€7.5M€6.0Mfell
Jorge Fernandes
Liga Portugal · 2024
27€2.5M€1.5Mfell
Mikael Lustig
Scottish Premiership · 2016
30€3.5M€3.3Mflat
Diogo Figueiras
Super League 1 · 2017
26€3.0M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022PEC ZwolleAZ Alkmaar€2.3M€1.5M
6 Jul 2021Sporting BPEC ZwolleFree / loan€50k
30 Jun 2020Orihuela CFSporting BFree / loan€50k
20 Jan 2020Sporting CP U23Orihuela CFFree / loan€75k
19 Jul 2018Ajax U21Sporting CP U23Free / loan€75k
1 Jul 2017Ajax U19Ajax U21Unknown€50k
1 Jul 2016Ajax U18Ajax U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Ajax U17Ajax U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Ajax YouthAjax U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.