Pablo Gozálbez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pablo Gozálbez's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (1062 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €620k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1062 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1343
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €385k – €1.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -47% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1062 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | AM | 28 | 1062 | 35% | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.40 | 1343 | 1310 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | AM | 17 | 647 | 21% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 1341 | 1285 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Valencia CF | Laliga | AM | 5 | 99 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1466 | 1459 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 180 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmytro Lyopa Premier Liga · 2014 | 26 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Andrea Chukanov Premier Liga · 2020 | 25 | €550k | €450k | flat |
| Mikkel Duelund Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Srdjan Mijailovic Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €700k | €1.0M | rose |
| Nicolaj Madsen Superliga · 2013 | 25 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Mamoutou N'Diaye Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 25 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Henrik Bjørdal Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 23 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Uri Rosell Liga Portugal · 2018 | 26 | €700k | €525k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Valencia B | Arouca | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Valencia U19 | Valencia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Valencia U18 | Valencia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Valencia CF You | Valencia U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.