Nikolaos Athanasiou
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikolaos Athanasiou's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1962 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €411k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1962 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1244
- Opponent strength
- 1325
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €601k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+89 Elo); role change LB -> LM; relative output down 56% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -48% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | LM | 17 | 1313 | 43% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 1325 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | LM | 8 | 649 | 28% | 0 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.31 | 1273 | 1225 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | LB | 24 | 1822 | 78% | 3 | 5 | 0.40 | 0.34 | 1292 | 1192 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | LB | 12 | 749 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1263 | 1205 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | LB | 4 | 360 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 1168 | 1179 | 0.37 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | APS Atromitos Athinon | 3 | 270 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | APS Atromitos Athinon | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | APS Atromitos Athinon | 2 | 156 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Michel Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 24 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Valeriy Luchkevych Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Tesfaldet Tekie Eredivisie · 2022 | 25 | €850k | €800k | flat |
| André Poko Super Lig · 2019 | 26 | €1.1M | €600k | fell |
| José Rodríguez Eredivisie · 2019 | 25 | €1.3M | €800k | fell |
| Igor Kogut Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Lukas Marecek Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €1.3M | €900k | fell |
| Tarkan Serbest Super Lig · 2019 | 25 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | OFI Crete | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 6 Feb 2026 | Olympiacos | OFI Crete | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Rio Ave | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 8 Jul 2025 | Olympiacos | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Atromitos | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Jan 2025 | Olympiacos | Atromitos | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Atromitos | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Niki Volos | Atromitos | Free / loan | €150k |
| 26 Jan 2022 | Atromitos | Niki Volos | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Atromitos U19 | Atromitos | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.