Maksim Mukhin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maksim Mukhin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (1051 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €615k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1051 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1197
- Opponent strength
- 1368
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €563k – €1.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -22% to +56%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1051 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | DM | 20 | 1051 | 39% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1368 | 1197 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 12 | 858 | 32% | 2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 1309 | 1403 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 17 | 800 | 30% | 1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.16 | 1318 | 1447 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 26 | 1801 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1346 | 1363 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | DM | 10 | 713 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1328 | 1457 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 4 | 320 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 3 | 164 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1582 |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 7 | 458 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 3 | 113 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 4 | 290 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1646 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Jukic Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Ignacio Saavedra Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €1.2M | €2.5M | rose |
| Görkem Sağlam Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €600k | €850k | rose |
| Haris Vuckic Eredivisie · 2018 | 26 | €750k | €650k | flat |
| Roberto Olabe Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Tiago Rodrigues Liga Portugal · 2017 | 25 | €750k | €3.0M | rose |
| João Pedro Liga Portugal · 2019 | 26 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Caetano Liga Portugal · 2015 | 24 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | FK Sochi | CSKA Moscow | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 31 Jul 2025 | CSKA Moscow | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Loko Moscow | CSKA Moscow | €170k | €2.5M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Loko-Kazanka M. | Loko Moscow | Unknown | €250k |
| 5 Jul 2019 | KS Samara II | Loko-Kazanka M. | Unknown | €125k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Akron Konoplev | KS Samara II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.