Ignacio Saavedra
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ignacio Saavedra's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.35x the positional average in the league (2215 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €981k vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2215 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1249
- Opponent strength
- 1341
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -57% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | DM | 18 | 1399 | 52% | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 1341 | 1197 | 0.56 |
| 2025/26 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | DM | 11 | 816 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1318 | 1339 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | DM | 12 | 971 | 36% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1319 | 1222 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 4 | 247 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Klich Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €2.3M | €2.5M | flat |
| Loret Sadiku Super Lig · 2019 | 28 | €1.3M | €850k | fell |
| Søren Rieks Eredivisie · 2014 | 27 | €1.3M | €1.5M | rose |
| Lucas Vera Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Rafał Augustyniak Premier Liga · 2022 | 29 | €1.7M | €750k | fell |
| Kerim Mrabti Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.2M | fell |
| Marco Ilaimaharitra Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 28 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Willie Overtoom Eredivisie · 2013 | 27 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Rubin Kazan | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 19 Feb 2026 | FK Sochi | Rubin Kazan | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 24 Jan 2024 | U. Católica | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Catolica U21 | U. Católica | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.