Kristoffer Lund
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kristoffer Lund's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-6.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-7.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.0M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2284 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1347
- Opponent strength
- 1506
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €7.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -36% to +128%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | LB | 33 | 2284 | 75% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1506 | 1347 | 0.94 |
| 2020/21 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | RB | 1 | 90 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1336 | 1450 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 112 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Masina Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €4.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Jérôme Roussillon Ligue 1 · 2017 | 24 | €3.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Ezequiel Muñoz Serie A · 2013 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Ronaël Pierre-Gabriel Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Kelvin Amian Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €3.8M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mickaël Nadé Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Matteo Darmian Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €2.4M | €12.0M | rose |
| Gotoku Sakai Bundesliga · 2014 | 23 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | 1.FC Köln | Palermo | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 5 Aug 2025 | Palermo | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Häcken | Palermo | €2.7M | €1.5M |
| 11 Aug 2021 | Esbjerg fB | Häcken | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Midtjylland U19 | Esbjerg fB | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FCM Youth | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.