Kelvin Amian
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kelvin Amian's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-4.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1962 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1304
- Opponent strength
- 1480
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €667k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -60% to -43%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | RB | 23 | 1962 | 64% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1480 | 1304 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | RB | 30 | 2163 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 1464 | 1357 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | RB | 12 | 800 | 26% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 1493 | 1309 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | RB | 30 | 2373 | 69% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1470 | 1310 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | RB | 32 | 2649 | 77% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1484 | 1319 | 0.89 |
| 2019/20 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | RB | 20 | 1631 | 65% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 1426 | 1210 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | RB | 32 | 2880 | 84% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 1475 | 1317 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | RB | 36 | 3154 | 92% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1456 | 1352 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | RB | 20 | 1678 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1425 | 1403 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 2 | 49 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmed Kantari Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mattia Bani Serie A · 2021 | 28 | €3.0M | €1.7M | fell |
| Michele Canini Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €2.2M | €800k | fell |
| Charalampos Lykogiannis Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €2.2M | €1.0M | fell |
| Gaetano Letizia Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.3M | flat |
| Andrea Costa Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €1.8M | €750k | fell |
| Emre Güngör Super Lig · 2014 | 30 | €1.5M | €450k | fell |
| Kamil Zayatte Super Lig · 2013 | 28 | €1.7M | €750k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2024 | Spezia Calcio | FC Nantes | €3.0M | €2.2M |
| 22 Jul 2021 | Toulouse | Spezia Calcio | €3.9M | €3.5M |
| 13 Oct 2016 | Toulouse U19 | Toulouse | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Toulouse FC U17 | Toulouse U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Toulouse For. | Toulouse FC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2007 | SC Balma Jugend | Toulouse For. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.