Luka Vesner Ticic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luka Vesner Ticic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.19x the positional average in the league (1774 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €286k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1774 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1176
- Opponent strength
- 1348
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €467k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 64% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -44% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1774 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | CM | 26 | 1774 | 66% | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 1348 | 1176 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | CM | 22 | 1581 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 1305 | 1181 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 3 | 129 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 5 | 176 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelechi Nwakali Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Igor Zagalskyi Premier Liga · 2017 | 26 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Stijn Spierings Eredivisie · 2020 | 24 | €550k | €2.0M | rose |
| Erik Bakker Eredivisie · 2016 | 26 | €600k | €750k | rose |
| Serge Tabekou Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €750k | €400k | fell |
| Azer Aliyev Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €600k | €550k | flat |
| Jordy Bruijn Eredivisie · 2022 | 26 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Oleksiy Savchenko Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €400k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2024 | FC Koper | Pari NN | €450k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | NK Krka | FC Koper | Free / loan | €175k |
| 22 Jul 2019 | ND Ilirija | NK Krka | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.