Ilir Krasniqi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilir Krasniqi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €699k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1868 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1233
- Opponent strength
- 1173
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €499k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 107% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -6% to +30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | CB | 14 | 1184 | 44% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1173 | 1200 | 0.25 |
| 2025/26 | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | Premier Liga | DM | 12 | 684 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1104 | 1290 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | CB | 22 | 1931 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1225 | 1186 | 0.28 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Llapi | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1416 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Llapi | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1361 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Jensen Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 28 | €750k | €750k | flat |
| Jordan Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| David Carmona Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Robbie Deas Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €650k | €500k | fell |
| Andreas Maxsø Superliga · 2020 | 26 | €1.2M | €2.5M | rose |
| Salvador Sánchez Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €450k | €650k | rose |
| Yassine Meriah Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Federico Álvarez Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €600k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka | Polissya | €1.2M | €1.0M |
| 6 Sept 2024 | KF Llapi | Kolos Kovalivka | €540k | €650k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Kek-U Kastriot | FC Llapi | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | KF Fushë Kosova | Kek-U Kastriot | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.