Jordan

27 yrs · Centre-back · Brazil
Zorya Lugansk · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€381k – €961k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€434k – €1.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€469k – €1.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€527k – €707k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€381k – €961k
Model value (performance-implied)€434k – €1.1M
Projected value (24 months)€469k – €1.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Jordan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 73

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average25.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €631k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationLow-21% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2477 (92% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.11
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
25 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1192
Opponent strength
1170
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€469k – €1.4M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 43% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -31% to +20%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Zorya LuganskPremier LigaCB29247792%210.110.09117011920.25
2024/25Zorya LuganskPremier LigaCB29261097%420.210.15120011820.28
2023/24Zorya LuganskPremier LigaCB26218581%100.040.04123912350.34

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupZorya Lugansk19000—
2024/25Ukrainian CupZorya Lugansk19000—
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingZorya Lugansk2180001549
2023/24Ukrainian CupZorya Lugansk212600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Sergiy Chobotenko
Premier Liga · 2024
27€1.0M€1.5Mrose
Ilya Putrya
Premier Liga · 2024
26€800k€500kfell
Praxitelis Vouros
Super League 1 · 2023
28€700k€600kflat
Frankie Kent
Scottish Premiership · 2024
29€1.2M€400kfell
Mykyta Bezuglyi
Premier Liga · 2023
28€500k€500kflat
Dimitrios Goutas
Super League 1 · 2021
27€700k€2.7Mrose
Franco Ferrari
Super League 1 · 2021
29€450k€500kflat
Nicky Devlin
Scottish Premiership · 2023
30€700k€500kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024Vila Nova FCZorya Lugansk€400k€800k
30 Jun 2024Zorya LuganskVila Nova FCFree / loan€800k
26 Jul 2023Vila Nova FCZorya LuganskFree / loan€350k
1 Jan 2023CianorteVila Nova FCFree / loan€350k
30 Nov 2022Vila Nova FCCianorteFree / loan€350k
15 Aug 2022CianorteVila Nova FCFree / loan€350k
12 Aug 2022TombenseCianorteFree / loan€350k
25 Jan 2022CianorteTombenseFree / loan€350k
31 Dec 2021ChapecoenseCianorteFree / loan€350k
13 Aug 2021CianorteChapecoenseFree / loan€50k
10 Aug 2021Ceará SCCianorteFree / loan€50k
24 Feb 2021CianorteCeará SCFree / loanData unavailable
6 Feb 2021Botafogo-SPCianorteFree / loanData unavailable
14 Jan 2020CianorteBotafogo-SPFree / loanData unavailable
31 Dec 2019CorinthiansCianorteFree / loanData unavailable
4 Jul 2018CianorteCorinthians BFree / loanData unavailable
22 Feb 2018FerroviáriaCianorteFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.