Lautaro Valenti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lautaro Valenti's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-5.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2251 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1374
- Opponent strength
- 1520
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €935k – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; relative output down 71% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +8% (IQR -50% to +37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | CB | 27 | 2251 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1520 | 1374 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | CB | 20 | 1557 | 46% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1514 | 1342 | 0.99 |
| 2020/21 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | CB | 11 | 496 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1555 | 1252 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Muñoz Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Paweł Dawidowicz Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Giangiacomo Magnani Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Ardian Ismajli Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €3.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Johan Djourou Bundesliga · 2014 | 27 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Mads Pedersen Bundesliga · 2023 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Luca Ceppitelli Serie A · 2015 | 26 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Filip Uremovic Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | Lanús | Parma | €10.5M | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Parma | Lanús | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 26 Sept 2020 | Lanús | Parma | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 10 Jun 2019 | Lanús II | Lanús | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Lanús U20 | Lanús II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.