Ardian Ismajli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ardian Ismajli's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-6.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-4.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -59% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1907 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1419
- Opponent strength
- 1509
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; changed club; team strength up (+75 Elo); relative output up 151% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -63% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Torino FC | Serie A | CB | 25 | 1907 | 56% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1509 | 1419 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | FC Empoli | Serie A | CB | 29 | 2510 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1504 | 1344 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | FC Empoli | Serie A | CB | 26 | 2046 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1463 | 1388 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | FC Empoli | Serie A | CB | 25 | 2091 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1454 | 1388 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | FC Empoli | Serie A | CB | 20 | 1265 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1513 | 1331 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | CB | 17 | 1296 | 38% | 1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 1471 | 1363 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 2 | 160 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 2 | 108 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 2 | 125 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 4 | 342 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Mendes Ligue 1 · 2020 | 30 | €4.8M | €4.0M | flat |
| Bram Nuytinck Serie A · 2021 | 31 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Carl Starfelt Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Falaye Sacko Ligue 1 · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Mikkel Desler Ligue 1 · 2024 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Nicolás Spolli Serie A · 2014 | 31 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Sebastien De Maio Serie A · 2016 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.4M | fell |
| Martin Valjent Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | FC Empoli | Torino | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 9 Aug 2021 | Spezia Calcio | FC Empoli | €2.0M | €2.5M |
| 14 Sept 2020 | Hajduk Split | Spezia Calcio | €2.2M | €950k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Hajduk Split II | Hajduk Split | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 22 Feb 2016 | KF 2 Korriku | Hajduk Split II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 15 Feb 2016 | FC Prishtina | KF 2 Korriku | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Aug 2015 | KF 2 Korriku | FC Prishtina | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.