Saud Abdulhamid
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Saud Abdulhamid's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-12.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.0M-10.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-12.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (1345 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.5M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1345 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1569
- Opponent strength
- 1438
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.1M – €12.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -68% to -43%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1345 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | RM | 25 | 1345 | 44% | 2 | 5 | 0.47 | 0.23 | 1438 | 1569 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RM | 4 | 205 | 6% | 0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.18 | 1368 | 1668 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 4 | 175 | 1 | 0 | 1520 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yusuf Yazıcı Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Danilo Cataldi Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €5.5M | flat |
| Amin Younes Bundesliga · 2021 | 28 | €10.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Clément Grenier Ligue 1 · 2016 | 25 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| André Gomes Ligue 1 · 2023 | 30 | €16.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Wylan Cyprien Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €4.5M | €1.1M | fell |
| Morgan Sanson Ligue 1 · 2023 | 29 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Yevgen Konoplyanka Bundesliga · 2018 | 29 | €10.0M | €4.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Roma | Lens | €3.5M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Lens | Roma | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 3 Aug 2025 | Roma | Lens | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 27 Aug 2024 | Al-Hilal | Roma | €2.5M | €4.0M |
| 22 Jan 2022 | Al-Ittihad | Al-Hilal | Free / loan | €850k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Al-Ittihad U23 | Al-Ittihad | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.