Morgan Sanson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Morgan Sanson's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-2.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.78x the positional average in the league (1773 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -57% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1773 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1358
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €802k – €2.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -58% to -37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1773 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CM | 31 | 1773 | 58% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 1477 | 1358 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CM | 6 | 234 | 8% | 3 | 0 | 1.15 | 0.42 | 1527 | 1521 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CM | 29 | 1980 | 65% | 2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 1477 | 1511 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 18 | 1431 | 42% | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 1441 | 1441 | 0.82 |
| 2022/23 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CM | 2 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1494 | 1625 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CM | 10 | 352 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1660 | 1520 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CM | 12 | 830 | 24% | 2 | 3 | 0.54 | 0.32 | 1402 | 1455 | 0.75 |
| 2020/21 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CM | 9 | 291 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1516 | 1517 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CM | 27 | 2186 | 87% | 5 | 5 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 1407 | 1539 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CM | 33 | 2406 | 70% | 5 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.25 | 1462 | 1477 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | AM | 33 | 2174 | 64% | 9 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.32 | 1435 | 1601 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CM | 20 | 1746 | 51% | 3 | 7 | 0.52 | 0.42 | 1420 | 1380 | 0.88 |
| 2016/17 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CM | 17 | 1358 | 40% | 1 | 7 | 0.53 | 0.36 | 1400 | 1541 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CM | 14 | 554 | 16% | 3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.29 | 1434 | 1431 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CM | 32 | 2743 | 80% | 6 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 1432 | 1434 | 0.80 |
| 2013/14 | Montpellier HSC | Ligue 1 | CM | 32 | 2464 | 72% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 1461 | 1372 | 0.79 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 6 | 340 | 0 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1631 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 67 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 370 | 0 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2020/21 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1771 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 2 | 135 | 0 | 1 | 1589 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 13 | 1066 | 0 | 1 | 1513 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympique Marseille | 4 | 360 | 2 | 0 | 1392 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalbert Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Josuha Guilavogui Ligue 1 · 2022 | 32 | €3.5M | €700k | fell |
| Ryad Boudebouz Ligue 1 · 2022 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Yoann Gourcuff Ligue 1 · 2017 | 31 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Filip Djuricic Serie A · 2023 | 31 | €1.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Aaron Hunt Bundesliga · 2016 | 30 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Tolgay Arslan Serie A · 2021 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.4M | fell |
| Joris Marveaux Ligue 1 · 2014 | 32 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Aston Villa | Nice | €4.0M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Nice | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 24 Jul 2023 | Aston Villa | Nice | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | R. Strasbourg | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 23 Jan 2023 | Aston Villa | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 26 Jan 2021 | Marseille | Aston Villa | €15.8M | €20.0M |
| 17 Jan 2017 | Montpellier | Marseille | €12.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Le Mans FC | Montpellier | €700k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Le Mans FC B | Le Mans FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Le Mans FC U19 | Le Mans FC B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Le Mans FC U17 | Le Mans FC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Bourges Jugend | Le Mans FC U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.