Brandon Aguilera
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Brandon Aguilera's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (1378 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €782k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1378 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1332
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €775k – €2.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 46% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -34% to +150%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1378 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 19 | 1378 | 45% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 1332 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 25 | 1377 | 45% | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 1351 | 1270 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | AM | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 1531 | 1428 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmytro Grechyshkin Premier Liga · 2015 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Artem Golubev Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Stephen Eustaquio Liga Portugal · 2020 | 24 | €2.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Ibrahima Conté Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 22 | €1.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Pedro Pelágio Liga Portugal · 2021 | 21 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
| Luka Ilic Eredivisie · 2021 | 22 | €950k | €2.5M | rose |
| Olivier Thill Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Jeando Fuchs Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 24 | €800k | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2024 | Nott'm Forest | Rio Ave | Unknown | €300k |
| 31 May 2024 | Bristol Rovers | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Nott'm Forest | Bristol Rovers | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Estoril U23 | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €275k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Nott'm Forest | Estoril U23 | Free / loan | €275k |
| 2 Jan 2023 | Guanacasteca | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €275k |
| 18 Jul 2022 | Nott'm Forest | Guanacasteca | Free / loan | €125k |
| 17 Jul 2022 | LD Alajuelense | Nott'm Forest | €950k | €125k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Guanacasteca | LD Alajuelense | Free / loan | €125k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | LD Alajuelense | Guanacasteca | Free / loan | €125k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Alajuelense II | LD Alajuelense | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AD Carmelita | Alajuelense II | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Carmelita II | AD Carmelita | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.