Aleksa Djurasovic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleksa Djurasovic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (922 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €971k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 922 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1212
- Opponent strength
- 1317
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €637k – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 60 pts; relative output up 180% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -40% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 922 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | DM | 16 | 922 | 34% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1317 | 1212 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | DM | 30 | 2529 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1302 | 1260 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Akron Togliatti | 3 | 81 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Akron Togliatti | 3 | 106 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clint Leemans Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Igor Konovalov Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Deroy Duarte Eredivisie · 2023 | 24 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Manolis Siopis Super League 1 · 2018 | 24 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Diawandou Diagne Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Tristan Dingomé Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 25 | €900k | €1.0M | flat |
| Rick Dekker Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €650k | €500k | fell |
| Chris Cadden Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 23 | €700k | €700k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Spartak | Akron Tolyatti | €500k | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Spartak U19 | Spartak | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Spartak U17 | Spartak U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.