Peque Fernández
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Peque Fernández's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-4.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-4.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (978 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 978 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.55
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1397
- Opponent strength
- 1490
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €4.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -56% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 978 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | SS | 26 | 978 | 29% | 2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.55 | 1490 | 1397 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | SS | 26 | 1134 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.42 | 1496 | 1410 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 2 | 170 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 3 | 130 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myziane Maolida Bundesliga · 2022 | 23 | €3.0M | €900k | fell |
| Brian Ocampo Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
| Álex Collado Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Richmond Boakye Serie A · 2015 | 22 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gaëtan Charbonnier Ligue 1 · 2013 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Lucas Höler Bundesliga · 2019 | 25 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Daniel Ginczek Bundesliga · 2014 | 23 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Federico Ricci Serie A · 2018 | 24 | €2.7M | €1.1M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2024 | Racing | Sevilla FC | €4.0M | €3.0M |
| 7 Jul 2022 | Barça Atlètic | Racing | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 27 Aug 2019 | Cornellà U19 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Cornellà Youth | Cornellà U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Barça Youth | Cornellà Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.