Topi Keskinen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Topi Keskinen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.12x the positional average in the league (1424 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €942k vs market €1.4M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1424 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1119
- Opponent strength
- 1194
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €597k – €2.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; team strength down (-67 Elo); role change RM -> LW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -43% to +62%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1424 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 30 | 1424 | 48% | 3 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 1194 | 1119 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 31 | 2117 | 71% | 5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 1246 | 1186 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 156 | 0 | 0 | 1373 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 4 | 287 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | HJK Helsinki | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1323 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duk Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Maximiliano Lovera Super League 1 · 2023 | 24 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Benjamin Tetteh Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €2.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Vladyslav Naumets Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Adrian Petre Superliga · 2020 | 22 | €1.1M | €800k | fell |
| Lazar Romanić Super League 1 · 2022 | 24 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Vlad Morar Super League 1 · 2019 | 26 | €700k | €350k | fell |
| Mykola Gayduchyk Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €300k | €1.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2024 | HJK Helsinki | Aberdeen FC | €1.0M | €1.2M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Mikkelin | HJK Helsinki | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | MP U20 | Mikkelin | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.