Daniil Denisov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Daniil Denisov's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-7.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-5.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-7.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 57.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.4M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2188 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1443
- Opponent strength
- 1341
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €7.1M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -33% to +34%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | RB | 29 | 2188 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1341 | 1443 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | RB | 25 | 1823 | 68% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1312 | 1470 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | RB | 20 | 1586 | 59% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1326 | 1383 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | RB | 29 | 2162 | 80% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1310 | 1394 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 6 | 182 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1306 | 1359 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 11 | 647 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 10 | 766 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 8 | 508 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 11 | 637 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Super Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 2 | 33 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Okumu Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €4.5M | €9.0M | rose |
| Bram Nuytinck Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 23 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Konstantinos Laifis Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 25 | €4.0M | €4.8M | rose |
| Murilo Premier Liga · 2020 | 23 | €2.4M | €2.0M | flat |
| Abdul Mumin Liga Portugal · 2022 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Riccieli Liga Portugal · 2023 | 25 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Matt Miazga Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Aleksandar Dragovic Premier Liga · 2014 | 23 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Spartak-D Moscow | Spartak Moscow | Unknown | €500k |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Spartak II | Spartak 2 | Unknown | €100k |
| 17 Jul 2019 | SShOR Zenit U17 | Spartak II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.