Nicolás Capaldo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolás Capaldo's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.7M-10.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-9.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 14
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 57th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.5M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2010 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1380
- Opponent strength
- 1509
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €9.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -51% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | CB | 26 | 2010 | 66% | 1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 1509 | 1380 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Oliván Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Kévin Malcuit Ligue 1 · 2018 | 27 | €7.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Milos Veljkovic Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Mouctar Diakhaby Laliga · 2023 | 27 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Lorenzo Tonelli Serie A · 2016 | 26 | €5.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Álvaro Pereira Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| James Tomkins Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €7.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Ko Itakura Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2025 | Salzburg | Hamburg | €2.1M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Boca Juniors | Salzburg | €4.5M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Boca Juniors II | Boca Juniors | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 22 Jul 2016 | CABJ U20 | Boca Juniors II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | M. Allister U19 | CABJ U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.