Lewis Neilson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lewis Neilson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €511k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 917 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 5 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1181
- Opponent strength
- 1173
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €314k – €958k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; changed club; team strength up (+65 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -25% to +65%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 917 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Falkirk FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 12 | 917 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1173 | 1181 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 17 | 1276 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1246 | 1081 | 0.34 |
| 2024/25 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 5 | 360 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1288 | 1237 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 10 | 507 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1315 | 1250 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 4 | 285 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1390 | 1261 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 9 | 559 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1348 | 1257 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Falkirk FC | 3 | 131 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 2 | 142 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Partick Thistle FC | 3 | 300 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Falkirk FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erdi Dikmen Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Triantafyllos Pasalidis Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Georgios Liavas Super League 1 · 2023 | 22 | €350k | €900k | rose |
| Daniil Khrypchuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Ryan Alebiosu Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 22 | €350k | €500k | rose |
| Stefanos Stroungis Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Philipp Schmiedl Superliga · 2021 | 24 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Oleksandr Martynyuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €500k | €1.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Heart of Midl. | Without Club | Unknown | €600k |
| 31 May 2026 | Falkirk | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €600k |
| 7 Jul 2025 | Heart of Midl. | Falkirk | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2025 | St. Johnstone | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jul 2024 | Heart of Midl. | St. Johnstone | Free / loan | €450k |
| 31 May 2024 | Partick Thistle | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €450k |
| 3 Aug 2023 | Heart of Midl. | Partick Thistle | Free / loan | €375k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Dundee United | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €250k |
| 5 May 2021 | Falkirk | Dundee United | Free / loan | €250k |
| 12 Mar 2021 | Dundee United | Falkirk | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Dundee Utd. U18 | Dundee United | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.