Diogo Nascimento
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Diogo Nascimento's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-7.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-6.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-9.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (968 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.9M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 968 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1550
- Opponent strength
- 1168
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €9.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -30% to +60%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 968 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CM | 18 | 968 | 41% | 1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.15 | 1168 | 1550 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | FC Vizela | Liga Portugal | CM | 34 | 2162 | 71% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 1389 | 1199 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 325 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1734 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Rogic Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Olivier Ntcham Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 23 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Marcos Antônio Premier Liga · 2021 | 21 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Felipe Gutiérrez Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €3.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Konstantinos Galanopoulos Super League 1 · 2019 | 22 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Delvin N'Dinga Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Luka Milivojevic Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 23 | €2.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Konstantinos Fortounis Super League 1 · 2015 | 23 | €2.0M | €9.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2025 | Vizela | Olympiacos | €4.0M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Benfica B | Vizela | €2.0M | €125k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica U23 | Benfica B | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Benfica U19 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Belenenses Yth | Benfica Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Sporting Yth. | Belenenses Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.