Olivier Ntcham
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Olivier Ntcham's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (1610 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 41.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1610 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1269
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €563k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; role change AM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -71% to -61%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1610 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | CM | 24 | 1610 | 53% | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 1269 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | AM | 32 | 2407 | 74% | 6 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 1291 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | AM | 27 | 1867 | 55% | 6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.39 | 1306 | 1217 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 14 | 590 | 20% | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 1293 | 1534 | 0.54 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | AM | 4 | 118 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1484 | 1455 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 23 | 1433 | 53% | 4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.22 | 1254 | 1608 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 16 | 1130 | 38% | 3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 1294 | 1525 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 26 | 1755 | 59% | 5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 1259 | 1570 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | AM | 20 | 967 | 28% | 3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.41 | 1516 | 1340 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | AM | 17 | 996 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.28 | 1526 | 1457 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Samsunspor | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1398 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 5 | 295 | 0 | 0 | 1573 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 2 | 117 | 0 | 1 | 1352 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 2 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1295 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 6 | 287 | 1 | 1 | 1469 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 4 | 210 | 0 | 1 | 1386 |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 3 | 186 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1377 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 6 | 504 | 1 | 0 | 1424 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 4 | 302 | 1 | 0 | 1581 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1307 |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 5 | 450 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Celtic FC | 5 | 384 | 0 | 2 | 1720 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 4 | 310 | 1 | 1 | 1412 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1608 |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 3 | 28 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nenad Krsticic Super League 1 · 2021 | 31 | €1.5M | €100k | fell |
| Sander van de Streek Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €1.3M | €500k | fell |
| Salih Uçan Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €4.0M | €800k | fell |
| Osama Rashid Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| Alexandros Tziolis Super League 1 · 2015 | 30 | €1.3M | €800k | fell |
| Khoren Bayramyan Premier Liga · 2023 | 31 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Younès Belhanda Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sean Klaiber Superliga · 2024 | 30 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Samsunspor | Without Club | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 7 Aug 2023 | Swansea | Samsunspor | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Celtic | Swansea | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Marseille | Celtic | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Celtic | Marseille | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 12 Jul 2017 | Man City U23 | Celtic | €5.0M | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Genoa | Man City U23 | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 31 Jul 2015 | Man City U21 | Genoa | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Man City U18 | Man City U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 13 Aug 2012 | Le Havre U17 | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Le Havre Youth | Le Havre U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Paris FC Yth. | Le Havre Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.