Calum Ward
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Calum Ward's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €675k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2970 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1212
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €561k – €1.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +28% (IQR -3% to +114%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 38 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 74%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 33 | 2970 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1212 | 1245 | 0.31 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Hemming Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Jacob Rinne Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €650k | €800k | rose |
| Liam Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 27 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Will Dennis Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Marvin Schwäbe Superliga · 2020 | 25 | €650k | €4.0M | rose |
| Jeppe Höjbjerg Superliga · 2019 | 24 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Patrik Carlgren Superliga · 2020 | 28 | €650k | €1.0M | rose |
| Jesse Joronen Superliga · 2018 | 25 | €700k | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | AC Oulu | Motherwell FC | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Helsinki IFK | AC Oulu | Free / loan | €100k |
| 20 Apr 2021 | Bournemouth U23 | Helsinki IFK | Unknown | €25k |
| 19 Apr 2021 | Helsinki IFK | Bournemouth U23 | Free / loan | €25k |
| 29 Jan 2021 | Bournemouth U23 | Helsinki IFK | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2020 | Weymouth FC | Bournemouth U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 25 Jul 2019 | Bournemouth U23 | Weymouth FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Bournemouth U18 | Bournemouth U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.