
Marvin Schwäbe
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marvin Schwäbe's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-4.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1347
- Opponent strength
- 1494
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €955k – €2.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -61% to -28%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1494 | 1347 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1518 | 1382 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1528 | 1476 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | GK | 21 | 1890 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1506 | 1500 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | GK | 22 | 1980 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1285 | 1371 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | GK | 26 | 2340 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1270 | 1326 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | GK | 26 | 2266 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1301 | 1364 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | 1392 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1448 |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Desmas Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Orestis Karnezis Serie A · 2016 | 31 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Gianluca Pegolo Serie A · 2013 | 32 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Marco Bizot Ligue 1 · 2022 | 31 | €4.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Eduardo Super Lig · 2013 | 31 | €3.7M | €2.5M | fell |
| Régis Gurtner Ligue 1 · 2018 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Maxime Dupé Ligue 1 · 2023 | 30 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
| Stole Dimitrievski Laliga · 2024 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | Bröndby IF | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hoffenheim | Bröndby IF | €700k | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Dynamo Dresden | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Hoffenheim | Dynamo Dresden | Free / loan | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | VfL Osnabrück | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €450k |
| 6 Jul 2015 | Hoffenheim | VfL Osnabrück | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Hoffenheim II | Hoffenheim | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Frankfurt U19 | Hoffenheim II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Frankfurt U17 | Frankfurt U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Frankfurt Yth. | Frankfurt U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Offenbach Yth. | Frankfurt Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.