Marvin Schwäbe

31 yrs · Goalkeeper · Germany
1.FC Köln · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1000k – €3.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.2M – €4.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€955k – €2.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.9M – €3.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1000k – €3.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.2M – €4.3M
Projected value (24 months)€955k – €2.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Marvin Schwäbe's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-4.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 46

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average65.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.3M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-52% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
3060 (100% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
66 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1347
Opponent strength
1494
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€955k – €2.8M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -61% to -28%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/261.FC KölnBundesligaGK343060100%000.000.00149413470.94
2023/241.FC KölnBundesligaGK343060100%000.000.00151813821.01
2022/231.FC KölnBundesligaGK343060100%000.000.00152814761.04
2021/221.FC KölnBundesligaGK21189062%000.000.00150615001.05
2020/21Bröndby IFSuperligaGK221980100%000.000.00128513710.43
2019/20Bröndby IFSuperligaGK262340100%000.000.00127013260.41
2018/19Bröndby IFSuperligaGK26226697%000.000.00130113640.44

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Dfb Pokal1.FC Köln221000—
2022/23Uefa Conference League Qualifying1.FC Köln2180001490
2021/22Dfb Pokal1.FC Köln333000—
2020/21Oddset PokalenBröndby IF112000—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingBröndby IF6570001392
2019/20Oddset PokalenBröndby IF221000—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingBröndby IF4360001448
2018/19Oddset PokalenBröndby IF330000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Arthur Desmas
Ligue 1 · 2024
30€2.5M€2.5Mflat
Orestis Karnezis
Serie A · 2016
31€5.0M€3.0Mfell
Gianluca Pegolo
Serie A · 2013
32€2.0M€800kfell
Marco Bizot
Ligue 1 · 2022
31€4.5M€4.0Mflat
Eduardo
Super Lig · 2013
31€3.7M€2.5Mfell
Régis Gurtner
Ligue 1 · 2018
32€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Maxime Dupé
Ligue 1 · 2023
30€2.5M€900kfell
Stole Dimitrievski
Laliga · 2024
31€4.0M€2.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2021Bröndby IF1.FC KölnFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2018HoffenheimBröndby IF€700k€700k
30 Jun 2018Dynamo DresdenHoffenheimFree / loan€700k
1 Jul 2016HoffenheimDynamo DresdenFree / loan€450k
30 Jun 2016VfL OsnabrückHoffenheimFree / loan€450k
6 Jul 2015HoffenheimVfL OsnabrückFree / loan€250k
1 Jul 2014Hoffenheim IIHoffenheimUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2013Frankfurt U19Hoffenheim IIFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Frankfurt U17Frankfurt U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Frankfurt Yth.Frankfurt U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Offenbach Yth.Frankfurt Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.