Aske Adelgaard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aske Adelgaard's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €856k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 16% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1561 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1297
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 16%
- Resale range (24m)
- €588k – €2.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -43% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1561 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | LB | 27 | 1561 | 51% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1297 | 1245 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | LB | 22 | 1224 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1314 | 1297 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | LB | 14 | 747 | 38% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1279 | 1220 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | LB | 14 | 815 | 41% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1278 | 1240 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 221 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Go Ahead Eagles | 6 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1547 |
| 2025/26 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1632 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 | 168 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 2 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Syb van Ottele Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Adam Tzanetopoulos Super League 1 · 2017 | 22 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Pavel Cmovs Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Arif Kocaman Super Lig · 2024 | 21 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Jorge Fernandes Super Lig · 2020 | 23 | €800k | €2.0M | rose |
| Jérôme Guihoata Super League 1 · 2018 | 24 | €750k | €600k | fell |
| Jukka Raitala Eredivisie · 2013 | 25 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Florent Hanin Super League 1 · 2014 | 24 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2024 | Odense BK | Go Ahead Eagles | €350k | €700k |
| 31 Jul 2022 | Odense BK U19 | Odense BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 29 Jan 2021 | Randers FC U19 | Odense BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Randers FC Yth. | Randers FC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Odense BK Youth | Randers FC Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.