Syb van Ottele
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Syb van Ottele's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 95
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 3.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €247k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 901 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1175
- Opponent strength
- 1342
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €355k – €793k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; relative output down 72% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -36% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 901 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | CB | 15 | 901 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1342 | 1175 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | CB | 31 | 1864 | 61% | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1323 | 1211 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | CB | 26 | 1424 | 47% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1348 | 1222 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | CB | 20 | 1174 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1348 | 1306 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | CB | 3 | 200 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1378 | 1287 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | DM | 3 | 201 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1362 | 1271 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 2 | 161 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 2 | 48 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 2 | 139 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgios Mygas Super League 1 · 2018 | 24 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Marco Lund Superliga · 2021 | 25 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Nicholas Mickelson Superliga · 2023 | 24 | €350k | €750k | rose |
| Alexandros Malis Super League 1 · 2020 | 23 | €325k | €300k | flat |
| Dimitrios Goutas Super League 1 · 2016 | 22 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Jesper Lauridsen Superliga · 2017 | 26 | €300k | €700k | rose |
| Angelos Zouboulakis Super League 1 · 2014 | 25 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Georgios Manthatis Super League 1 · 2019 | 22 | €450k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2024 | Heerenveen | Fortuna Sittard | Free / loan | €700k |
| 8 Jan 2021 | NEC Nijmegen | Heerenveen | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | NEC U19 | NEC Nijmegen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | NEC U17 | NEC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | NEC Youth | NEC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | RKSV Brakk. Y. | NEC Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.