Fabiano
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fabiano's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 3.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €572k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 502 (16% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 3 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 7)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1316
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €648k – €1.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -54% to -32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 502 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | RB | 7 | 502 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1316 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | RB | 11 | 702 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1350 | 1271 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | RB | 25 | 2130 | 70% | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 1371 | 1329 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RB | 12 | 966 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1360 | 1557 | 0.68 |
| 2022/23 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | RB | 9 | 792 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1301 | 1295 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RM | 27 | 1421 | 46% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 1401 | 1514 | 0.67 |
| 2019/20 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RB | 2 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1411 | 1522 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 5 | 395 | 0 | 0 | 1546 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 7 | 687 | 0 | 1 | 1540 |
| 2021/22 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SC Braga | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edin Cocalic Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 28 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Alper Uludağ Super Lig · 2016 | 26 | €1.0M | €350k | fell |
| Todd Kane Eredivisie · 2018 | 25 | €1.3M | €800k | fell |
| Gianni Zuiverloon Eredivisie · 2013 | 27 | €1.5M | €750k | fell |
| Ferro Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Sherel Floranus Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €800k | €850k | flat |
| Hernán de la Fuente Liga Portugal · 2023 | 26 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Jonas Ivens Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 29 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2025 | Ceará SC | Moreirense | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 23 Jan 2025 | Moreirense | Ceará SC | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 9 Aug 2023 | Braga | Moreirense | €700k | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Kasimpasa | Braga | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 2 Feb 2023 | Braga | Kasimpasa | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Braga B | Braga | Unknown | €550k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Coimbra | Braga B | Free / loan | €550k |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Braga B | Coimbra | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jul 2019 | Braga U23 | Braga B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2019 | Braga U19 | Braga U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Linense | Braga U19 | €100k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Penapolense | Linense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.